The Nationals Offseason....Through NFL Analogies

The Nationals' moves are reminiscent of another DC team's most recent free agency moves...

I had someone ask me today to explain the Nationals offseason with football analogies today. I thought it was a fun way to put the team’s moves so far in perspective. With that said, here’s each move “in football terms:”

The Nathaniel Lowe Trade

Think of this like when a team trades a 4th or 5th rounder for a good player that would've otherwise been a cap casualty. It's usually not a superstar, and you didn't get them "for free," but you’re still getting a high-end player for less than their value probably should've been.

The Josh Bell Signing

This is like when your team needs a big wide receiver and they sign a guy on the wrong side of 30. Fans will hate the move, and the guy probably won't give you what you really need, but context aside he'll have a fine season. Bell is like those veteran post-prime big-name receivers that go have 500-600 receiving yards. But if you're looking for "the guy," they aren't solving that issue for you. Bell may not be as big a name, but in terms of production, this is what we’re looking at.

The Michael Soroka Signing

The closest NFL equivalent to this is bringing in a former highly-picked quarterback to be part of an open competition for the starting job and and hoping he ends up becoming "Tennessee Ryan Tannehill" or "Vikings Sam Darnold,” but knowing that in the worst case scenario you still have a solid backup (in this case, bullpen arm) on your hands.

The Trevor Williams Signing

This is kind of like adding a guy who gets 5 sacks a year to your pass rush. It definitely makes your group collectively better but isn't something that suddenly makes the group dominant the way adding a big-time pass rusher would.

The Amed Rosario Signing

Rosario hits lefties well and the Nationals have a very lefty-heavy infield right now. Equivalent of adding a "designated pass rusher" or a run stuffing defensive tackle who you only use situationally. Definitely not something that moves the needle in a big way but still a good move for what you're adding him to do.

The Jorge Lopez Signing

Hard to give a perfect analogy since it's still not clear exactly what role he'll have. But the best comp I'd give here is the Nationals opted "not to pay their non elite running back" (they non-tendered closer Kyle Finnegan) and instead opted to get similar value for cheaper by getting one of those no-name guys who put up big numbers in a Shanahan offense.

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And speaking of football analogies, the Nationals’ offseason is reminiscent of another recent offseason by a Washington team — the Commanders.

The Commanders didn't spend the way people thought they might with all that cap room. They didn't make a single move that was truly splashy."And they entered the season clearly not quite there in a lot of areas on the roster.

But they tried to make sure they added to each group that needed help, boosted the floor of what was possible, and gave the roster a chance to be better than the sum of its parts if the few guys with star potential (Daniels/McLaurin, or in Nationals’ case Wood/Crews/Abrams/Gore) performed to that level.

If the Nationals have real success this year it'll come very much the way the Commanders' success did: a great culture, solid role players helping raise the floor, and star-potential players playing like stars and elevating the team beyond the sum of its parts.

That rarely happens to the degree it has for the Commanders though, so the chances of the Nationals being that kind of team *this* season are not that high as the roster currently sits. They need more if you want to feel good about their chances to take a major leap beyond just flirting with 81-82 wins.

But like the Commanders, the Nationals have put some solid veterans in place to raise the floor of a roster that was previously staring at black holes in several spots. What happens from here… we’ll have to wait and see.